Investors Election Analysis
The Election May Come Down to Just Two States.
As many of you know, my focus and voice are on investing and economics, not politics. However, macroeconomics is a significant factor in the returns of companies and bonds.
Disclaimer. This is a pre-debate post looking using pre-debate polls numbers.
The Popular Vote
At this point, the popular vote is becoming more and more irrelevant on deciding the next president. The electoral college is the number that elects a president. The traditional goal to reach is 270, at least in most years. However, I think a tie is a very likely outcome after reviewing the likely combinations.
The Electorial College Number is the Key
According to the electoral college polls as of 9/25/16, Trump is ahead in the key swing states of NC, Florida, and Ohio. He is also ahead in Nevada, Iowa, and Arizona. This outcome puts Trump at 265 of the 270.
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New Hampshire
His next most likely state to win in New Hampshire with only four (4) electoral votes. A win in New Hampshire moves both candidates into a Trump and Clinton into a 269 – 269 tie. That equals a Trump win since the tiebreaker is each state in the House of Representatives gets one vote. Since it appears there are 27 red (GOP) states Trump would win. The Senate vote on the Vice President. Since the GOP has a majority, it would seem that Pence would win.
Pennsylvania
Per the National polls, the next most likely state for Trump to win would be Pennsylvania which carries 20 votes. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he could lose New Hampshire and Nevada and still win.
Other Key States
After New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, according to the Presidential polls, three other states are also now in play. Clinton leads in Colorado (9 – electoral votes), Wisconson (10 – electoral votes), and Maine (4 – electoral votes). Clinton must sweep these three states to win. The problem is Trump is closing the gap fast. Like New Hampshire, if Trump wins Maine’s four votes, he would have 269 and most likely win the tiebreaker. If Clinton loses any of the five states, she will probably lose in a very close election. If Trump unexpected wins more than one of these states, then he could survive an unexpected Clinton win in one of the Trump states.
Other Longshot Trump States
Michigan, Vermont, and Virgina are longshot states for Trump. The Clinton lead in these state is narrowing, but the lead is still significant. Vermont has very little current polling information available to review. The variance in the polls in Virgina are from a 1 point lead to an 11 point lead which hints of gamesmanship; whereas the Michigan race has a tight and believable variance showing a Clinton 5 point lead average.
In conclusion
Assuming Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska, Nevada and Arizona then he would just need to win just one of the following states:
- New Hampshire (4) (electoral votes)
- Pennsylvania (20)
- Colorado (9)
- Wisconson (10)
- Maine (4)
Clinton is currently leading in these five states. If she can sweep these states, she wins.
Cheer for your favorite candidate and keep investing.