The voice, lens, and focus of this blog are providing value to investors. There are other platforms that do a better job on politics. As many of you know, I have a knack for connecting the dots to possible outcomes to help investors since change is an opportunity.
The Overview of the Current Geopolitical Situation with Russia, Ukraine, the US, Germany, and NATO in the past few weeks.
- Russia continues to mass infantry, tanks, S-400 anti-aircraft batteries on the Ukraine border.
- Today the Russian Black Sea Navy appears to have stationed around the coast of Ukraine in a way to suggest a blockade to keep supplies out of Ukraine.
- The US has demanded the US Embassy be evacuated and says that an invasion is inanimate.
- Russia has surrounded Ukraine on three sides.
- Russia and China Navy’s conducted joint war game drills last month.
- As a response, to the dismay of Russia, the US and some of NATO are flooding the Ukraine border with frontline M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks, Bradley Armored vehicles with 50,000 troops to the Poland/Ukraine/Romania border.
- Just as worrisome to the Russians, the US is sending in large quantities of the new “Javelin” anti-tank missile to Ukraine military forces, which have proven effective against all versions of Russian tanks.
- Several countries are now more willing to join NATO ASAP as Russia demands that other countries withdraw from NATO.
- Many NATO countries are sending ships, tanks, and assets to the borders in question. Well, except Germany. Germany now gets 30% of its natural gas from Russia. The US has said it will work with other countries to supplement Germany’s natural gas needs if Russia threatens to cut off its gas supplies. Germany said today that. “it will replace Russia’s natural gas imports if necessary.”
The Overview of the Current Geopolitical Situation with China, The US, Turkey, India in the past few weeks.
- China’s current focus is on the start of the Olympics this Thursday.
- With coal shortages leading to unreliability of electricity and frequent rolling blackouts, many companies are moving their manufacturing out of China as fast as possible.
- It looks like the big manufacturing winner in this exodus from China may be India. However, The Philippines, Mexico, Indonesia, South America, and the US will also win with new manufacturing plants being built.
- China’s CCP is still focused on taking over Taiwan. However, the US is also selling jets and weapons to Taiwan.
- The new anti-ship LRASM missile is now operational on The B1B bomber and aircraft carrier-based Super Hornet.
- US Marines will be deployed with a truck-mounted variant of the LRASM called the NEMESIS on small islands throughout the South Pacific to deter or sink PLAN ships (Chinese warships).
- The US is to supply Taiwan with the new LRASM
- Turkey’s economy is now in crisis with hyperinflation and spotty electricity. Turkey is an importing county. Without a value currency, the Turkish people face an uncertain future.
- Chinese supply chain delays are still a world affecting issue.
My Prediction on when any Invasions Will NOT Happen
With the Chinese Olympics starting this week, the PRC will not cause any provocative military actions until after the Olympics’ are over to embarrass the CCP with organized county walkouts during the games. After the games are over, all bets are off. They don’t want to waste the multi-billion dollar PR event.
Russia may do the same. They kept their nose clean until after the Russian Winter Olympic Games were over. However, Russia is less motivated to wait than China. They may invade days after the Olympics are over, IMHO. Hopefully, diplomacy will prevail.
Are the Russians and CCP (China) planning joint operations against NATO or with the long-lasting distrust between Russia and China not enable effective teaming?
As recently as of early 2021, China’s CCP claims that Russia’s Kruil Islands are historically theirs and need to be returned to the PRC. As a hint of things to come many, internet articles on this topic now state, “There are no current China and Russia border disputes,” Interesting repeated comments. For decades, China/CCP has stolen Russian military jet patents by buying a few jets and then using them as a template to copy. Hence, there is a complicated CCP/Kremlin relationship.
How Investors are Affected
- Ukraine is one of the biggest wheat producers in Europe. If Russia takes over this life-supporting resource, more problems may be created for Europe.
- Russia may use its natural gas and oil production as a political weapon.
- Investors may want to consider companies that could replace Russia’s fossil fuel supplies and Ukraine’s wheat commodities.
- Investors should review the events above in detail to uncover additional investment opportunities to leverage.
- These are risky times. Change is opportunity. Be smart. Be safe. Good luck.